Justin St. Ours

ESCANABA — The game of baseball emerged in America in the mid-1850s, but it wasn’t until the 1920s that baseball began to establish itself as a national organization. By the end of World War II, baseball was firmly embedded in the American psyche. It became “America’s pastime” and a vital part of Americana. The last few years, however, haven’t been kind to baseball — at least anecdotally. A season isn’t able to pass without a drove of articles about its death, but is it really dying?

Let’s start with, seemingly, the most obvious indicator, game attendance. As of the writing of this article, 16 of 30 major league teams currently have a lower attendance per game average than last year. Naturally, there will be some fluctuations in attendance depending on how the team looks each season, but when more than half of the league is facing the same problem, just waving off the change isn’t reasonable. The trend isn’t just limited to two years. Baseball attendance has been trending down for the last four years. Sure, it’s a percent or two here and there, but a trend is a trend. It should be a worrying one if you’re a baseball fan.

The attendance problem is even more concerning when you realize that a baseball game is by far the most economical choice when compared to the NFL, NBA and NHL. Let’s take a look at ticket prices for four Detroit teams. A Tigers ticket, on average in 2019, will cost you $41, and the Pistons come in just above that at $55. The next highest would be the Lions with an average of $85, and the Red Wings top the list with a sticker price of $158. You may see the problem. Despite being the cheapest option, attendance is still trending down.

That’s not to say that other sports aren’t also trending downward in attendance. The NHL, NBA and NFL are also seeing a downward trend, but, in general, the percentage drop is less than or equal to the MLB.

The next problematic sign is viewership. If attendance is down, does that mean viewership, in general, is also trending down?

If we consider the World Series, its viewership has been declining since 1991 when it averaged over 35 million viewers over all games. However, since 2008, the viewers have been mostly stable with a small downward trend. ‘But what about 2016?’ I hear you ask. The Cubs and Indians were a fluke that hit over 22 million, and it’s easy to see that it’s taken a significant dip since the 90’s, even though it was one of the best years in recent memory considering viewers. There was another spike in viewership in 2004 at over 25 million.

Taking 1991 into account, it seems as though one can rely on a viewership spike every 12 or 13 years. The ripples of 2016 gave a boost to 2017 and 2018 numbers, but 2018 already dropped back down to 2015 levels and should drop further if things remain the same.

Surely, local teams must still receive the attention of their fans. Not particularly. Through the first half of the 2019 season, local viewership is down 4% overall from last year.

This is concerning because while the NBA has also seen a slow decline in viewership, the NFL and NHL are beginning to recoup their audiences and are on the rise.

But didn’t the MLB recently post record-setting revenues? How is that possible if attendance and viewership are down?

The first part of the answer to that is the same reason people have begun to avoid attending sports in general: rising ticket and concession prices.

Instead of more actively encouraging people to return to the ballpark, teams have decided it’s more efficient to squeeze more out of the people who are already attending. Of course, this also drives down attendance further in a vicious cycle.

The second is the MLB is making a lot of its money from non-player sources, i.e. brand deals, partnerships, investors, etc.

Essentially, the MLB is making a lot of money, but it’s only sustainable if the majority of the teams care about enhancing the MLB brand. Slow, boring and uninspiring games will eventually ruin its credibility and the ability for it to land these deals and partnerships. Even television deals may be in danger if baseball doesn’t find a way to re-engage audiences.

So, is baseball dying? It depends on your definition, I suppose, but if baseball wants to survive, it needs to change like it has always done. Today’s game is much different than it was in the 1920s, so as long as baseball can move with the times, I think it will be hanging around for quite a while yet.