Beyond reddish-brown autumn leaves, a woman walks a dog Monday near the Escanaba Municipal Marina, where fewer and fewer boats remain since the onset of chillier weather. (Photo by R. R. Branstrom | Daily Press)

After a warm start to fall, the National Weather Service is serving up a neutral forecast stretching into winter across the Upper Peninsula.

From now through December, above-normal temperatures are favored over much of the U.S., but the upper Great Lakes is an exception, NWS forecaster Anthony Artusa said.

Forecasters expect a weak La Nina to emerge, fading by late winter and spring. La Nina, the cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, is linked to colder- and stormier-than-average conditions across the northern U.S.

“By late fall and early winter, favored above-normal temperatures are predicted to be limited to the far southern and far eastern portions of the continental U.S.,” Artusa said.

The Climate Prediction Center’s precipitation outlook for the U.P. and northern Wisconsin is neutral until February. Above-normal precipitation is then slightly favored. The temperature outlook is neutral throughout the winter.

The NWS did issue a freeze watch Monday for today through Wednesday for portions of the central and western Upper Peninsula, with some ares expected to drop into the 20s.The average date for the first autumn frost this century is Oct. 2, while the average for records dating to the early 1900s is Sept. 21.

Unofficial highs of 84 degrees Saturday and 87 degrees Sunday in Iron Mountain neared or surpassed local record highs of 86 degrees for Oct. 4 and 5 that were set in 1922, Weather Underground data shows.

Rainfall in September totaled 1.42 inches at Iron Mountain-Kingsford, which was a little more than 2 inches below normal. Abnormally dry conditions are reported by the U.S. Drought Monitor over much of northern Wisconsin, but there are no areas of concern in the U.P.

Elsewhere in the U.P., 3.12 inches of rain fell in September at Marquette, which was very near average. Iron River’s total was 6.35 inches — nearly 3 inches above the norm.

The Orionid meteor shower is expect to peak Oct. 21, shooting about 20 meteors per hour across the night sky.

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Jim Anderson can be reached at 906-774-2772, ext. 85226, or janderson@ironmountaindailynews.com.