Iran thinks Trump is bluffing, can outlast him
Days late and tons of enriched uranium short, Iran’s regime rejected the U.S. peace offer on Sunday and replied with unserious demands. On Monday President Trump called Iran’s counteroffer a “piece of garbage” that leaves the cease-fire “on massive life support–where the doctor walks in and says, ‘Sir, your loved one has approximately a 1% chance of living.'”
Call it a standoff. Before Iran’s response Mr. Trump had said, “If they don’t agree, the bombing starts.” He had also said, “We may go back to Project Freedom,” the U.S. effort to guide commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, “if things don’t happen.” This would be “Project Freedom plus other things,” which may be necessary to protect oil tankers.
Iran spent last week trashing the cease-fire, twice attacking U.S. warships with missiles, drones and speed boats, and repeatedly firing on the United Arab Emirates, a U.S. ally. The U.S. responded only to the sources of the fire with what the President called “just a love tap.”
By clinging to the cease-fire through it all, Mr. Trump sent the wrong signal. Iran’s regime clearly thinks it can outlast a President who no longer wants the fight. “They think that I’ll get tired of this or I’ll get bored, or I’ll have some pressure,” Mr. Trump recognized in his Monday remarks, “but there’s no pressure at all. We’re going to have a complete victory.”
The problem is that he is under pressure, and everyone knows it. Why else is the President now talking about pausing the gas tax? Mr. Trump is right about the regime’s perception of him, but he’ll have to prove it wrong.
The achievements of the war are real, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu laid out on “60 Minutes” on Sunday. Iran’s long-range missiles, missile production, navy and air defenses have been smashed, along with nuclear scientists and nuclear weaponization sites. The regime is showing fissures and has lost much of its “money machine,” plus its immunity from direct attack.
“We broke the barrier of fear,” Mr. Netanyahu said. The regime must now take that into account.
Yet Mr. Netanyahu didn’t mince words about what remains to be done. “It’s not over,” he said. “There’s still nuclear material, enriched uranium, that has to be taken out of Iran. There are still enrichment sites that have to be dismantled. … There are ballistic missiles that they still want to produce.”
Mr. Netanyahu reiterated a plan to “draw down to zero” U.S. military aid, by the way, noting that he previously ended reliance on U.S. economic aid. Israel has “tiny territory but gigantic talent,” he said, shares “gems of intelligence” and military technology, and “everybody’s pro-American because we appreciate what America stands for.” This is the ally that Democrats and some on the right increasingly want to renounce, naturally.
Could a deal address the outstanding issues in Iran? So far, no. The regime’s counteroffer rejected any dismantling of nuclear facilities. It demanded major sanctions relief before making nuclear commitments, and sought to hang on to much of its enriched uranium and shorten a moratorium on further enrichment.
This is a regime that thinks it can absorb economic pain from the U.S. blockade longer than Mr. Trump can tolerate higher prices for oil and petrochemicals. Mr. Trump will have to persuade Tehran’s leaders they’ve underestimated him–and the pain.
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ONLINE: https://www.wsj.com/opinion/iran-donald-trump-cease-fire-strait-of-hormuz-uranium-israel-benjamin-netanyahu-5ac64ebf?mod=editorials_article_pos3



