Brian Rowell Daily Press Ice shantys dot the frozen surface of Little Bay de Noc off Escanaba. Ice anglers won’t have to be in a big hurry to get their shantys off the ice as spring approaches, according the National Weather Service’s long-range prediction.

IRON MOUNTAIN — The National Weather Service predicts a fairly normal transition from winter to spring, calling for average temperatures and an elevated chance of above-normal precipitation.

The Upper Peninsula has about a 40% chance of above-average precipitation from now through the end of April and a 25% chance of below-average, according to the Climate Prediction Center.

The Midwest, in general, could see a higher risk of ice jams and flooding after extreme cold in January.

“The up-and-down temperature forecast of melting and refreezing may go on, leading to block-ups and flooding,” AccuWeather meteorologist Paul Pastelok said. A moderate risk of severe thunderstorms is also expected from March through May in northern Wisconsin and the U.P., he said.

For the near term, AccuWeather meteorologist Alex Sosnowski predicts a major shift in the jet stream that could bring a large storm to the U.P. late this week.

“A stripe of moderate to heavy snow with difficult travel is likely to extend from near the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma to portions of Wisconsin and Michigan and perhaps just north and west of Chicago,” Sosnowski said. In the wake of the storm, the pattern may start to favor more mild days than cold days, reversing the trend from earlier in the winter.

The U.S. Drought Monitor shows moderate drought in all Wisconsin counties along the Upper Peninsula border, extending into parts of Delta, Menominee, Dickinson, Iron, Gogebic and Ontonagon counties. There is no drought concern in most of the rest of the Upper Peninsula, except for the far eastern end.

La Nina continues to be the major contributor to the predicted climate state, NWS forecaster Matthew Rosencrans said. La Nina, a periodic cooling of the central Pacific, appears to have peaked, but its effects on weather patterns can linger.