ESCANABA — Following an announcement by the CDC that fully-vaccinated people can return to activities they did before the pandemic without the need for a mask, many are begining to question if the pandemic is nearing its end and herd immunity is right around the corner — but answering that question isn’t straight forward.

As of Friday, 48.01% of Delta County’s population, age 12 and older, has received at least a first dose of one of the vaccines that protects against the virus responsible for COVID-19, according to the Michigan Vacc to Normal Tracker, which aggregates vaccination records both health departments and pharmacies submitted through the Michigan Care Improvement Registry. The tracker shows 42.67% completed their vaccination in its entirety, either by getting a second does or by receiving the Johnson and Johnson single dose vaccine.

According to Mike Snyder, Health Officer at Public Health Delta & Menominee Counties, the data for Menominee County is less clear.

“Many Menominee residents received their vaccine in Wisconsin and not all of these doses have been entered into MCIR,” he said.

Based on the Vacc to Normal Tracker data, 41.24% of Menominee County residents have received at least a first dose while 35.13% have completed their vaccination.

“As you can see we have a ways to go until we reach herd immunity,” said Snyder.

“Herd immunity,” the resistance to the spread of a contagious disease because enough of the population is immune to the disease — either due to vaccination or by developing antibodies through infection — has become a buzzword for much of the pandemic. What that would look like for COVID-19 is still largely an unknown.

According to William Petri, a professor of infectious disease at the University of Virginia and chair of the World Health Organization’s

Polio Research Committee, experts have estimated between 60% and 90% of the U.S. population would need to be fully vaccinated to reach herd immunity. As of Monday afternoon, the CDC reported only 37% of the total U.S. population was fully vaccinated.

The move to roll back mask guidelines drew criticism — both over the low percentage of vaccinated citizens and the concerns that people opposed to the vaccine would simply lie to avoid wearing masks. However, not long after the CDC announced it was relaxing the requirements for masks, Governor Gretchen Whitmer relaxed the state’s mask manadate to reflect the new guidance.

The rest of the state’s “MI Vacc to Normal” plan is largely based on the idea that a 70% vaccination rate would reach herd immunity, or at least reduce infection rates substantially enough to lift all orders. Two weeks after 70% of Michiganders are vaccinated, the state plans to “(lift) the Gatherings and Face Masks Order such that MDHHS will no longer employ broad mitigation measures unless unanticipated circumstances arise, such as the spread of vaccine-resistant variants.”

As of Friday, 55.7% of the state was fully vaccinated, according to the Vacc to Normal Tracker.