The area’s recent wintry blast may be short-lived. The weekend forecast calls for highs reaching 38 and 40 by Sunday and Monday.

As for the long term, a December through February forecast from the National Weather Service calls for a 45% chance of above-normal precipitation in the central Upper Peninsula and a 20% chance of below normal. NWS is neutral on winter temperatures for the region, while the Weather Channel slightly favors above average.

La Nina — a periodic cooling of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that typically delivers higher precipitation to the U.P. — is expected to emerge and persist through winter. It may, however, be a weak event, forecasters say.

After a dry late summer and early fall, the U.S. Drought Monitor shows moderate drought or abnormally dry conditions across much of the Upper Peninsula and northern Wisconsin. There is severe drought in Vilas County, Wis., extending into Ontonagon County.

This year is on track to be among the warmest on record. After a very mild winter, summer temperatures were close to normal while temperatures from September through November averaged nearly 5 degrees above normal.

Winter officially arrives at 4:21 a.m. Eastern time Saturday, Dec. 21, when the Northern Hemisphere is tilted as far away from the Sun as possible.