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Forecast calls for fall warmth to hang on

IRON MOUNTAIN — A warm fall is expected to persist through October in the Upper Peninsula, while the long-range temperature outlook through winter is neutral, forecasters say.

The National Weather Service calls for a 45% chance of above-normal temperatures this month and a 20% chance of below normal. The precipitation outlook is neutral for October but leans toward above-average this winter after a record-dry September at Iron Mountain-Kingsford.

“Ongoing climate conditions indicate a continued slow trend toward potential La Nina conditions later this autumn,” NWS forecaster Jon Gottschalck said.

La Nina — a temporary natural cooling of parts of the central Pacific Ocean — has a 71% chance of emerging this fall and is expected to persist through early 2025, Gottschalck said. Near-average sea surface temperatures were observed across most of the equatorial Pacific in August.

The transition to a cooler phase comes in the wake of a 2023-24 El Nino event that help cause global temperatures to spike and contributed to record-breaking warmth locally this past winter.

The U.S. Drought Monitor shows severe drought in all of Menominee County as well as southern Dickinson and Iron counties. In Wisconsin, the drought is severe in Florence, Marinette and Forest counties.

To the north and west of the severe drought area, there is moderate drought.

Fire danger throughout the region is very high, according to the USDA Forest Service.

As peak fall colors arrive, Travel Wisconsin shows colors at 55% in Florence County. The Upper Peninsula Travel and Recreation Association says the peak in the Dickinson County area is expected next week.

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