Summer has a good chance of being hotter than normal in. U.P.

ESCANABA — The National Weather Service (NWS) in Negaunee recently released a climate outlook that highlights the expected weather for the summer months across central portions of the United States and the Great Lakes.

According to the report, the Upper Peninsula has a 40 to 50 percent chance of being above the normal temperature for June, July and August. While the temperature has a probability of being higher than normal, the precipitation can go either way. The report indicates that area (and all of Michigan) have equal chances to be below, above or normal in terms of precipitation.

Multiple meteorologists from the NWS in Negaunee weighed in to explain what these probabilities mean and what people can expect for upcoming months.

Meteorologist Daniel Jablonski said it is important to note that weather is a fluctuating thing, so the probabilities of the patterns are not set in stone.

“These outlooks are probabilities, there is a chance for it to go the opposite way,” Jablonski said.

Meteorologist Joseph Phillips explained these probabilities are created in part to the pattern and development of the ENSO cycle. El Nino and La Nina are opposite phases of the climate pattern ranging across the Pacific Ocean. The two together are refereed to as ENSO which stands for El Nino-Southern Oscillation.

Phillips explained that the current El Nino is expected to transition to ENSO-neutral and perhaps further transitioning into La Nina by mid-summer.

“This favors near normal temperatures and precipitation for June in the U.P. This means periodic showers and thunderstorms (and) mixed in temperatures mostly in the 70s,” Phillips said.

“Of course, there may be hotter or cooler days mixed in depending on the overall pattern. If we transition to a La Nina this summer, this would result in the U.P. being more likely to see above normal temperatures,” he added.

Meteorologist Taylor Prislovsky predicts that residents in the U.P. will have another summer akin to the previous one.

“It is probably going to be similar to last summer, decent chance its warm like last summer,” Prislovsky said.

To stay up to date on local weather patterns, visit https://www.weather.gov/mqt/ or call the NWS at 906-475-5212.


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