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IRON MOUNTAIN -- There is drought across northern Wisconsin and parts of the Upper Peninsula after a dry November.
Water-equivalent precipitation at the Iron Mountain-Kingsford Wastewater Treatment Plant measured 0.54 inches last month, the 12th-driest November since record-keeping began in the early 1900s. The total included an inch of snow.
December might also remain dry and a long-range forecast from the Climate Prediction Center suggests the trend may continue through March. The CPC sees a 45% chance of below-normal winter precipitation in the U.P. and northern Wisconsin and a 20% chance of above-normal. The odds are similar for mild temperatures -- a 45% chance of above-average and a 20% chance of below.
For December alone, the CPC outlook calls for a 55% chance of above-normal temperatures and just a 10% chance of below.
The forecast is tied to a persisting El Nino, a natural climate cycle that temporarily warms parts of the ocean and affects weather patterns around the world. El Nino is typically associated with milder winters in much of the northern U.S.
Along with above-normal temperatures, "below normal precipitation is favored from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes," NWS forecaster Johnna Infanti said.
The U.S. Drought Monitor shows abnormally dry conditions in Iron, Dickinson, Menominee and Delta counties and moderate to severe drought in Gogebic and Ontonagon counties. Conditions are much the same in northern Wisconsin, including severe drought in Florence County and moderate drought in Forest County and northern Marinette County.
Drought has taken hold in much of the Midwest, although areas bordering the Great Lakes are mostly free of concern. Eastern Iowa is in extreme drought.
The winter solstice, which marks the first day of winter, will occur at 9:27 p.m. Dec. 21, marking the shortest day of the year in terms of daylight in the Northern Hemisphere.
Typically, northern Wisconsin and the U.P. have a greater than 90% chance of a white Christmas, defined by the NWS as at least an inch of snow on the ground or falling snow accumulating to at least 0.1 inches on Dec. 25.