Uncertain outlook for winter in Upper Peninsula
IRON MOUNTAIN — It has been a balmy fall so for the Upper Peninsula, but highs this weekend may finally drop into the 50s. The Climate Prediction Center has called for a 70% chance of above-average temperatures in October and a 40% chance of above-average precipitation. The long-range outlook, however, is neutral on both temperatures and precipitation through January.
CPC forecasters expect La Nina conditions to prevail this winter, which can bring cold and snowy weather to areas around the Great Lakes. La Nina, the flip side of El Nino, is the periodic cooling of the central Pacific Ocean that affects weather patterns around the globe.
Often during La Nina, a greater number of weak storms advance from the west to the Midwest and Great Lakes. This can keep snowfall totals at normal or even above-normal levels with many smaller events occurring, rather than a blockbuster snowstorm or two, according to AccuWeather.
“Not all La Ninas are created equal and there can be variations in weather patterns that develop,” AccuWeather meteorologist Brian Lada said.
Even with the presence of La Nina, there are weak or conflicting signals among long-range temperature forecasting tools, National Weather Service forecaster Scott Handel said.
With modest rainfall this past month, the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor as of Thursday showed abnormally dry conditions in much of the Upper Peninsula, including all but the northern reaches of Iron and Dickinson counties. In Wisconsin, Florence and Marinette counties were also listed as dry.
There was extreme drought in several counties in northeastern Minnesota and at least some level of drought over all of northern Minnesota.