Ilsa Minor | Daily Press A melting snowman continues its vigil on the Escanaba beach Friday. The rest of March is expected to be milder than average, but it will still be a while before the beach will see people that aren’t made of snow.

ESCANABA — February’s cold snap — which included 14 days of temperatures dipping below zero at Garden Corners — likely won’t be repeated as spring approaches.

The polar vortex is strong once again, which means Arctic air is less apt to plunge deep into North America, forecasters say.

“A milder-than-average March is expected over much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation, while a chillier-than-usual March is forecast only for parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies,” said Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company.

A long-range outlook from the National Weather Service calls for 38% chance of above-average temperatures from now through the end of May, and a 29% chance of below-average.

La NIna conditions — a cooling of the central Pacific Ocean that affects weather patterns around the globe — are likely to persist through early spring.

“The general pattern in March could resemble what is seen in a typical La Nina — namely, colder in the Northwest and generally warmer elsewhere in the U.S.,” Crawford said.

A warming above the North Pole in early 2021 stretched and displaced the polar vortex, allowing colder air to invade the U.S. At the weather service’s observation site in Garden Corners, temperatures dipped to record lows of minus 22 degrees on both Feb. 17 and 18. Between Feb. 7 and Feb. 22, temperatures dropped below zero on 14 of the 16 days, including five readings of 20 below or colder.

Daytime highs did, however, manage to climb above zero every day last month. A reading of 9 degrees on Feb. 8 marked the coldest daytime high at Garden Corners. The highest reading was 46 degrees on Feb. 24.

Meanwhile, snowfall this winter has been remained below normal. At Gladstone, snow depth at the end of February was 11 inches, which compares with 23 inches a year ago.

Spring officially will begin at the vernal equinox, which will occur at 4:37 a.m. Central time March 20.

Low ice coverage on the Great Lakes could have implications on the region’s weather in the months ahead, according to AccuWeather meteorologist Paul Pastelok. Despite plunging temperatures in February, ice coverage remained significantly lower than normal at 16.2% across the Great Lakes on March 1.

Since water is not particularly cold in the lakes, air temperatures across the Midwest could go through a significant rise at the end of spring, leading to an unusually warm May, Pastelok said.

There also is a good chance for heavier precipitation. The NWS estimates a 50% chance of above-normal precipitation in the U.P. from March through May and just a 17% chance of below-normal.

“We do think it’s gonna get pretty wet later in March and April,” Pastelok said of the Midwest in general.

The U.S. Drought Monitor currently shows abnormally dry conditions across the Upper Peninsula and northern Wisconsin.

Jim Anderson can be reached at 906-774-3500, ext. 226, or janderson@ironmountaindailynews.com.