Jordan Beck | Daily Press A volleyball court in Ludington Park was flooded this morning after a rainstorm hit the area overnight. The Escanaba Water Plant recorded 0.87 inches of rainfall from the storm. According to the National Weather Service Marquette Office, long-term weather conditions for the summer months can be particularly difficult to predict.

ESCANABA — While summer will not technically begin until June 20, Memorial Day marked the unofficial start of the season in the Upper Peninsula. Ryan Connelly, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service (NWS) Marquette Office, said weather conditions for the next few months have been somewhat difficult to predict.

Before getting into the NWS’ long-term forecast for the U.P., Connelly provided an overview of spring weather in the area.

“We had a very cool and wet spring, for the most part,” he said.

Though U.P. temperatures have been below normal over the past two months — particularly in the central U.P. — Connelly said this does not tell the whole story.

“If we were to look at just the last 14 days, the whole U.P.’s above normal,” he said.

In some parts of the western half of the peninsula, temperatures have been six to eight degrees above normal in this time period.

According to Connelly, this is consistent with trends seen across the northern half of the country.

“We had these really frequent cold-air outbreaks … that kept coming down from Canada and across the Great Lakes,” he said.

The outbreaks stopped about two weeks ago, and the northern United States is now in a pattern of high-pressure ridging more typical of late spring and early summer.

In April and May, precipitation was near normal to slightly below normal in the U.P. However, precipitation levels in the southern half of Menominee County were between 150 to 200 percent of average in the past month.

Connelly said this was largely due to a major rainstorm in the area.

“Most of that fell about two and a half weeks ago,” he said.

Precipitation in the northern half of the county has been closer to average for the past 30 days.

In the past two weeks, precipitation levels for most of the U.P. have been relatively low. While Delta County has been near normal, having recorded precipitation levels at 70 to 90 percent of its average, the western U.P. and parts of the eastern U.P. saw about 50 percent of their average precipitation in this timeframe.

Connelly went on to share the Climate Prediction Center’s three-month outlook for June through August. Although the process of predicting weather months ahead of time is never easy, he said it is particularly difficult in the summer months.

“We frequently don’t see very strong signals,” he said.

This is the case because summer weather patterns tend to develop more quickly and affect smaller areas than winter weather patterns do.

With this in mind, Connelly said current predictions call for rainfall in the peninsula to be close to average levels through August.

“The Climate Prediction Center has us in near to slightly above normal precipitation,” he said.

Temperatures may be around average in the U.P. this summer, as well.

“They’re also saying just slightly above normal,” Connelly said.

As summer weather continues in the area, Connelly encouraged local residents to be aware of Lake Michigan’s current record-high water levels.

“If we do have some strong wind, we could continue to see minor lakeshore flooding,” he said.