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Luck is big in fantasy

September 17, 2010
By Keith Shelton

ESCANABA - Fantasy football is about 20 percent research, 20 percent planning, and 80 percent luck.

The luck aspect came through for me in spades, pushing me to a week 1 win. It was more about the bad luck of my opponent - Q - rather than the good luck of my team.

My opponent started Philadelphia quarterback Kevin Kolb. This was obviously a bad move, but not just because Kolb got knocked out of the game with a concussion. He had Eli Manning, an established starter, on his bench. Manning was facing Carolina while Kolb was facing one of the NFL's best defenses in Green Bay. Always go with the better matchup. My opponent didn't.

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Keith Shelton

When Kolb was knocked out, he had 0 fantasy points. Manning on the other hand, had a 22 point day. Getting a goose egg from your quarterback will almost never get your fantasy team a win.

I won 114-81.50, good for fourth place in the standings, so even if my opponent had started Manning, he would have lost, but overall points matter in the standings as a tiebreaker.

The big surprise on my team was Hakeem Nicks, who caught all three of Manning's touchdowns and finished with an outstanding 27 points. To expect that every week would be ridiculous, so I'm still trying to trade Nicks and could now benefit from a sell high situation. I made an offer to another team, NIcks for Carolina's Steve Smith.

The first thing I do after the fantasy week ends is check my bench to see how many points I missed out on. You miss out on points if one of your bench players scores more points than one of your starters.

I did well in week 1, only missing out on 6 points. I started Mike Williams over Philadelphia's Jeremy Maclin. Williams earned 8 points on 75 receiving yards. Maclin on the other hand caught one of Mike Vick's touchdowns en route to a 12 point game.

I also started San Francisco's defense over Miami's. Miami's D had 15 points while the 49ers had 13. No big deal.

After week 1 begins the biggest free agent rush of the year. People love to overreact to week 1 performances, good or bad. It's no big deal if the player you drop wasn't going to do much to begin with, but I've seen people drop established starters for some second-string player that had a hot week 1.

Case in point, Mike Vick.

We have a waiver-wire system in the league and I had the bad luck of being 12th. That basically means that if four teams want the same guy, and they all pick him up on the same day, I'm not getting him.

I waited too long to grab Vick. The player I was going to drop was Greg Camarillo, no big loss for me, possible huge gain as Philadelphia plays Detroit on Sunday.

The team that got Vick was my week 1 opponent. What I don't understand is why he dropped Kolb to get him.

It has never been said Vick will be the Eagles new starter. Vick may start Sunday if Kolb isn't healthy, but beyond that? Anyone's guess.

Guess who picked Kolb today?

Week two matchups for my team were pretty easy. I'm obviously playing Maclin and Philly TE, Brent Celek against Detroit.

Playing anyone on your team against Detroit in fantasy football has been as sure a thing as death and taxes for about the last decade.

It's pick my poison on defense. San Francisco is home against New Orleans and Miami is on the road against Minnesota. I'm starting Miami and hoping Favre throws a few interceptions their way.

As it stands, I'm projected to win 111.11-104.82.



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